Graphic showing the standings of Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris among Arizona voters that responded to the August 2024 Public Opinion Pulse.
Just over a month after Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race, new polling is showing Kamala Harris’ campaign has been successful in capturing some of Arizona’s independent and undecided voters in the presidential race, but it is still a tight race.
According to the results from the August Arizona Public Opinion Pulse, Donald Trump is still leading the state over Kamala Harris by a margin of 3 points, the same lead he had over Biden.
Noble Predictive Insight Chief of Research David Byler said that Harris significantly reduced the number of voters still on the fence, even before the leading third-party candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. dropped out of the race last week.
“The percentage of undecided voters has dropped from 15% in May to just 9% in August,” he said. “Harris has captured meaningful leads among key voter blocks in August, some of which were Trump’s advantages in May; Independents, Hispanic, and young voters are breaking for Harris.”
Harris leads Trump by more than 12 points among Hispanic and Latino voters. Biden, before he dropped out, only had a two point lead over Trump in that demographic.
But Harris’ challenge remains defining herself in a short amount of time, said Byler.
“The real question, the one that no one knows the answer to, is how Harris fares under scrutiny. She's just secured the nomination, and voters don't know her the way they know Trump,” he said.
The results also reflected strong energy for the Harris’ campaign among Arizona Democrats.
Nearly 90% of Arizona Democrats that were polled think Biden’s withdrawal was the right move, and 86% of Harris voters are voting for her, rather than seeing their vote as one against Trump.
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